Syria’s Alawites Face an Uncertain Future as Power Shifts in the North

Kais’ father picks at his food, the heat pressing down on his small apartment in Latakia. When asked why he isn’t eating on the terrace, he shrugs: “Ramadan has started.” As an Alawite, he does not fast or avoid alcohol, but in times of tension even these small habits are kept private. “Better not to raise controversy,” he says. Latakia may be an Alawite-majority city, but discretion has become second nature.

“Simple Alawites like us had three choices: flee, collaborate, or die.” These words from Payton, a Syrian-American whose family fled in the 1980s, capture the impossible position many Alawites endured during decades of Assad rule. Her father refused to join the regime’s repressive apparatus, and was lucky to escape.

After more than fifty years of Assad family power, Syria’s Alawite community now finds itself at a crossroads. As Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist faction that controls much of Idlib, advances on key areas and the regime loses ground, Alawites, long perceived as the regime’s core beneficiaries, fear being left vulnerable in the next political order.

A Community Caught in the Middle

Payton believes the image of unanimous Alawite support for Assad is “deeply misleading.”
“Yes, conditions improved for many Alawites under Hafiz al-Assad,” she says. “But it came at a cost. Many were forced to collaborate, and those who refused were imprisoned, tortured, or killed.”

Kais, a Syrian-Lebanese living in Melbourne, echoes the worry. His father, an Alawite from Latakia, fled persecution in the 1990s, but returned in 2023 to care for his mother. When Israeli strikes damaged Syria’s airports after October 7, he found himself unable to leave, trapped in the rising uncertainty of what a post-Assad transition might bring.
“HTS claims Alawites will not be persecuted,” Kais says. “But many were forced into the regime’s ranks. Will they be forgiven for something they didn’t choose?”

His fears intensified after the destruction of an Alawite shrine in Aleppo on December 25, which sparked protests from Alawite communities demanding a united Syria.

A Long History of Marginalization

According to geographer and Middle East expert Fabrice Balanche, Alawites have faced persecution for centuries, long before the Assad era.
“During Ottoman rule, they were seen as heretics and pushed to the margins,” he explains. “Even after their recognition as Muslims in 1932, suspicions remained.”

Under Hafiz al-Assad, Alawites were elevated into key military and intelligence roles, linking the community with the state’s repressive apparatus. Bashar al-Assad continued this pattern, deepening the association between Alawite identity and regime survival.

“Many Alawites had no choice but to support the regime, or at least appear to,” Balanche says. “The alternative was being labeled a traitor, tortured, and killed.”

The Fear of What Comes Next

With HTS and other opposition groups controlling significant territory, Alawites fear collective retribution. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has insisted that Alawites will be part of “the new Syria,” and that only those involved in regime crimes will face justice. But skepticism is widespread.

“To me, it’s political messaging,” Kais says. “So many Alawites were linked to the regime because they had no choice. How will that distinction be made?”

Balanche warns that despite HTS’s assurances, Syria remains deeply fragmented. “Latakia may face a different reality than the rest of the country,” he notes. “And rebel factions are not fully unified. The fate of Alawites will depend heavily on whether new authorities can realistically guarantee their protection.”

For now, the future of Syria’s Alawite minority remains uncertain. As Kais’ father puts it, “Hope is all we have. But if this turns out to be more of the same, Syria will once again descend into endless violence.”